The East End Real Estate Market Report: Q3 2019

The South Fork

Challenging market conditions persisted on the South Fork. Reported closed sales dipped 27% year-over-year, the largest decrease in nearly ten years, and the fourth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year decline in sales. Prices, on the other hand, held steady with the median price unchanged versus Third Quarter 2018 and average price up slightly.

By area, Third Quarter 2019 sales were down almost everywhere. Only Shelter Island and Westhampton/Remsenburg held firm with the same number of closings reported this quarter as this time last year. Montauk and Quogue were off by just one reported sale versus Third Quarter 2018. On the opposite end of the spectrum, East Hampton Village sales decreased by more than half and Amagansett sales dropped 43%.

While overall South Fork price statistics were essentially flat, there was major variation by area depending on where this quarterโ€™s highest end deals occurred. The areas with the highest average prices also had the biggest increases year-over-year: Southampton Village at 54%, followed by Water Mill at 32%, and Bridgehampton/Sagaponack at 31%. The biggest drop was in East Hampton Village where a lack of sales reported over $4M caused a steep 60% decline in average price.

While every price category east of the canal had a drop in reported sales, some ranges were affected more than others were. The lowest-end of the market (under $500K) saw the largest decline on a percentage basis and therefore shrunk in market share from 7% last year to 4% this year. But the highest-end (over $5M) also shrank, falling from 9% of the market to 7% in Third Quarter 2019. The $2M toย $3M price range also had a constriction in its share of sales. $1M to $2M was the main beneficiary, growing from 29% to 34% of sales, while $3M to $5M had a 3% increase in market share.

The market share of reported sales was quite stable west of the canal. There were just minor changes at the top-end of the market. The over $5M category is usually a sliver of the market but dropped to 0% this quarter as no sales were reported over that price point.

The North Fork

Price statistics were solid on the North Fork but sales figures decreased in Third Quarter 2019. Average price was up 1% year-over-year while median price actually increased 13%. Fewer reported sales under $350K drove the spike in median price. Sales volume dropped 15% and the number of sales fell 16% to its second lowest figure in six years.

The North Forkโ€™s decline in sales was not across-the-board. East Marion/Orient reported closings were the same as Third Quarter 2018 and Southold had a notable 29% increase in sales. However, these positives were overwhelmed by double-digit declines in Aquebogue/Jamesport, Greenport, and Mattituck/Laurel.

Price changes versus last year were relatively minor in most areas. Greenport saw the biggest changes, with average price up 7% and median price up 25%. The decline in sales was more significant at the low-end of the market, causing price statistics to increase.

In Third Quarter 2019, more sales were reported on the North Fork in the $750K to $1M and $1M to $1.5M price ranges, causing these categories to grow markedly in market share. The biggest drops occurred at the extreme ends of the market. Reported sales under $350K decreased from 9% of the market to only 3% this year. Over $1.5M closings were also 3% of the market but were 7% in Third Quarter 2018.

Read the full East End report.

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