Miami Beaches & Coastal Mainland Market Report: 4Q 2023

“In Miami Beach, the housing market felt cooler temperatures at the end of 2023 reflecting the impacts of still-high interest rates, skyrocketing prices, and tight inventory at crucial price points. But even while many buyers took a ‘wait and see’ approach, single-family sales increased for the first time in two years.

Many buyers priced out of the Miami Beaches turned their attention westward to the Miami Coastal Mainland, where single-family closings and sales volume showed modest year-over-year increases. We ended the year in South Florida with a lot of strong momentum and these bright spots should have us all feeling renewed enthusiasm for what’s to come in 2024.”

– Pamela Liebman, Corcoran’s President & CEO

Miami Beaches Highlights

Demand for Miami Beaches real estate cooled further due to high interest rates, climbing prices, and limited inventory at crucial price points.

  • With these factors keeping many buyers on the sidelines, condo sales fell year-over-year for the seventh consecutive quarter. However, single-family sales increased for the first time in two years.
  • Annual percentage shifts in median price also diverged by product type, rising for condos but declining for single family homes.
  • Amid slower sales and buyers’ “wait and see” approach, inventory increased annually but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

For the seventh consecutive quarter, sales and dollar volume in the Miami Beaches fell by double-digits. However, median prices climbed year-over-year as the market share of sales over $250K expanded.

  • Both average price and price per square foot rose for the second consecutive quarter, driven by a flurry of luxury closings over $10M throughout the Miami Beaches.
  • Inventory was up 11% versus a year ago due to the overall moderation in demand and an increase in newly listed inventory in Fourth Quarter 2023.

Single-family sales rose 30% YOY vs. a slow fourth quarter 2022 to 70 closings, the first yearly increase since 2021.

  • Bolstered by high-end waterfront transactions, sales volume rose 33% YOY – the second-largest annual increase in over two years. These super-luxury deals, including a $79M closing on Indian Creek Island, propelled the quarter’s average price gains.
  • While median price fell by 37% versus 2022, both average price and average price per square foot increased annually due to multiple ultra-luxury closings exceeding $10M.
  • Similar to condos, supply increased from last year, to 406 units at the end of 2023.

Miami Coastal Mainland

Annual shifts in supply and demand statistics were less significant for the Miami Coastal Mainland than for the Miami Beaches in Fourth Quarter 2023.

  • Similar to the beaches, closings and sales volume differed by product type. For condos, sales and volume fell YOY, while both statistics increased annually for single-family residences.
  • Inventory for both product types increased annually, as slower sales combined with an increase in new listings during the quarter.
  • Price metrics remained level or rose versus 2022, as buyers priced out of the Miami Beaches turned their attention westward.

Miami Coastal Mainland condo closings and sales volume fell annually by 6% and 7%, respectively, in Fourth Quarter 2023 — the sixth consecutive quarter that both sales figures declined.

  • Reminiscent of last quarter, inventory rose by double digits to over 2,800 units alongside the dip in sales activity.
  • Price statistics were essentially unchanged versus a year ago for condos, which had the benefit of lowering marketing timelines by 27% YOY.
  • Negotiability deepened by about a half point in favor of buyers.

Versus last year, single-family closings and sales volume increased marginally, up 2% and 5%, respectively. This was the first time since before the pandemic that both figures rose YOY.

  • As with the Miami Beaches, inventory increased compared to 2022, albeit slightly, up 2% to 337 listings.
  • Median price jumped 31%, driven by an increase in the market share of sales over $2M increasing to 53% from 33% a year ago.
  • With the increase in sales activity, days on market fell YOY, though the increase in inventory did cause discounts to deepen by a slight 1% annually.

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